By KENNETH TODD RUIZ
BANGKOK -- Polychromatic political agitators, military-girded coups d'état, factional violence and courts of law have all had a hand in reversing Thailand's democratic fortunes during the past five years.
Next month, Thailand's electorate hopes to voice the final word in restoring representative democracy by choosing new leadership in the first general elections held since 2007. Until that time, about 150 candidates have sought police protection for the remainder of the campaign while opponents trade accusations of impropriety.
Although a panoply of parties will appear on their ballots, voters on July 3 face two choices: either to maintain the status quo of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva or once again return power to the political dynasty of Thaksin Shinawatra, who was forcibly deposed in 2006. Until that time, about 150 candidates have sought police protection for the remainder of the campaign and opponents trade accusations of impropriety.
Either way, Election 2011 is a buyer's market. There doesn't seem to be many promises off the table for candidates -- from higher wages and lower taxes to the wholesale elimination of poverty and drug abuse.
Abhisit has said his government will put more money in workers' pockets by increasing the minimum wage 25 percent. Thaksin promised a government-supplied tablet computer for every student.
Dramatics typical to any election are beginning to play out as the campaign enters its final weeks. Those opposing Thaksin have sought to disqualify Yingluck Shinawatra from her top spot on the Pheu Thai party list. Pheu Thai is all but guaranteed to win the most seats in the election, after which it will seek to coalesce a majority and install Yingluck -- Thaksin's younger sister -- as prime minister.
The Democrat Party hopes to keep Abhisit in that job by holding enough seats with its lesser coalition partners to block another ascendant Shinawatra. The urbane Abhisit has proven his political talents by outliving all expectations when he became caretaker prime minister by fiat in December 2008. He's also had to dodge ice blocks and insults outside of his urban comfort zone while seeking inroads into the rural, Thaksin heartland.
Although Yingluck has asserted her autonomy, few doubt she will serve as a proxy for her big brother, who built his brand as the micromanaging "CEO" of ThaiGov.
As Thailand looks to move forward, its fate and narrative are still dominated by one man, now living in exile in Dubai.
Indeed the younger Shinawatra's campaign seems to borrow heavily from Thaksin Shinawatra's highly successful bid in 2001. Then and now, Team Shinawatra promised to wield a business acumen and decisive leadership to address national ills.
The possibility that Yingluck might rule at her brother's behest would be just fine with many of the supporters who helped Thaksin become the first prime minister to survive an entire term. He won a second term in 2004 with wide support. The Royal Thai Army removed him from power two years later.
Ninety-two people were killed during unrest in 2010 after Thaksin-aligned "Redshirts" sought to affect his return from Dubai through nonviolent means.
They also demanded Abhisit step down because he lacked the imprimatur of voters. The winsome Oxford graduate led his party in opposition until the removal of a second Thaksin-approved successor by a court under spurious pretenses.
Yingluck has promised amnesty for those who've run afoul of the past five years' political turmoil. Her opponents fear this to be a mechanism whereby Thaksin could be absolved of his in absentia conviction on corruption charges and return to Thailand.
Pheu Thai has reportedly declined to field Yingluck in a debate with Abhisit prior to the election. Either party will need to command a majority in the 500-seat parliament to forge a ruling government.
Despite the results of next month's election, the first test of Thailand's return to democracy will come after the ballots are certified. Whether Thaksin, Abhisit, red, yellow or other prevails, it remains to be seen whether there will be a noble concession of the vanquished -- and the powers each represents -- and respect for the rule of law.
Until then, voters have only promises and pasts through which to sift.
Kenneth Todd Ruiz is a Bangkok-based journalist.
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