Reporter in Exile

A woefully incomplete guide to Thailand's 2011 election

Early voting began over the weekend throughout Thailand, where glossy election posters have choked the streets for weeks.

A decade back, at the end of 2000, I was here during the campaign and eventual election of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

It was to be a historic election under the kingdom's newest and -- according to many legal scholars -- best constitution. (Which in 2006 would be unilaterally rewritten by the military.)

One thing changed are the candidates' images. Martial attire was the custom 10 years ago. But while the Royal Thai Army's power has not flagged during the past decade; its brand image has suffered.

Yet the army's primary area of operation has always been domestic politics. The modern Thai state has never made war, excepting an attempt to reclaim territory from an already-trounced France in 1940. Thai soldiers, however, have been deployed numerous times to supress Thai citizens.

Anyhoo. Net result: Resentment over the army's last political intervention, ouster of Thaksin and constitution-shredding has seen a 'demilitarization' of the political aesthetic. More sports jackets, jewelry and smiles.

Unchanged are the Shinawatra campaign's key messages: from Thaksin-then to Yingluck-now. What he said; she says. Business acumen. "CEO" leadership. Redistribution of wealth. Power to the people.

"Too rich to be corrupt" was the argument the electorate puzzled over in 2000. "Too big to fail" seems the prevailing wisdom today.

Here is a partial list of some of the many candidates and parties on oversized-display:

 

Name: Prachathipat (Democrat Party) 

Leader: Abhisit Vejjajiva

Election designation: No. 10

Current seats: 172

Abhisit Vejjajiva, while clearly a hell-of smart guy, just doesn't photograph so well.

Many observers wrote Abhisit Vejjajiva's political epitaph as soon as he became prime minister. They predicted he'd be replaced, toppled or worse within months for being too young, too privileged and too Oxford-educated. That was two-and-a-half years ago, and the "caretaker" PM now hopes to retain his post with a newfound credibility from the electorate. His Democrat Party formed a coalition government with others after the courts found another legal pretense to remove another Thaksin-loyal PM in 2008. Under his leadership, the Democrats doubled-down on populist policies similar to those which built Thaksin's base.

As for the posters, the Democrat campaign is defensive basketball. They are expending more effort on scare-tactics to portray their opponents as dangerous than they have built a case for their accomplisments. Their posters and speeches remind voters of the fires and violence in Bangkok last year, intimating that more of the same will come with a Puea Thai victory.  

 

Name: Puea Thai  (For Thais Party)

Election designation: No. 1

Leader: Yingluck Shinawatra

Current seats: 188

 

PTP Candidate Little Sister is polling well among women and men, the rural and urban and foreign men.

Where the Democrats have scared, Puea Thai has uplifted. The third incarnation of Thaksin Shinawatra's banned Thai Rak Thai ("Thais Love Thais") party, PTP has run a positive campaign promoting its ticket-topping Yingluck Shinawatra, a political neophyte who also happens to be Thaksin's youngest sister.  So much for turning a new page with new leadership.

Yingluck has shown she can work a crowd, and a charm campaign/introduction tour has taken her from zero to hero among Thaksin and PTP supporters in a matter of weeks. Although she asserts her independence from Thaksin, there is little doubt among Thais that Yingluck is a proxy for the convicted/self-exiled former prime minister. After all "CEO Micromanager" was core to his political identity. Yingluck's policies and pronouncements are unlikely to come forth without the imprimatur of big brother-in-exile.

Her posters feature the highest production values. Whereas most women candidates seek to defeminize themselves with chopped coifs, Yingluck's cascading locks are full-blown Soft Power.

Everyone expects Puea Thai to outperform its opponents on July 3. Will they take the 260-or-so seats necessary to rule outright?

 

Name: Rak Thailand  (Love Thailand Party)

Election designation: No. 5

Leader: Chuwit Kamolvisit

Current seats: 0

Chuwit is mad as hell and he's not ... actually I have no idea what's going on here.

And then there is Chuwit. Known to most people as the Sex Parlor King, Chuwit ran an empire of megabrothels in Bangkok and doesn't shy from speaking his mind, making him an anomaly among Thais. (For the frankness, not the sex business.) He's run unsuccessfully for governor of Bangkok before. He also stomped a news anchor for questioning his manhood.

It's tempting to dismiss the overtly sincere-yet-hammy Chuwit as a mere joke candidate. It's also difficult to imagine him being an effective politician. Whether he's in it for simply for the Lulz or ego gratification, only Chuwit knows.That said, he is the most entertaining candidate in an election short on chuckles. (This poster reads: "Politics is like a diaper -- it should be changed often.")

His style draws an affectionate response. A surprising number of people, including well-heeled, status-quo types, have confided their impulse to vote for the Sex King. He might do well enough among those frustrated and undecided between the two majors to win a seat in parliament.

In case Chuwit's brand isn't clear by now, here's one more:

Name: Bhumjaithai  (Thai Pride Party)

Election designation: No. 16

Leader: Newin Chidchob

Current seats: 32

Originally a member of Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai party, Newin turned against his former boss two years ago and led his splinter faction, Bhumjaithai, into a coalition with the Democrats, which created today's Abhisit government.

Newin's been accused of corruption several times and actually convicted of vote buying. He's also been a significant power broker for a guy who was banned from politics four years ago.

Bhumjaithai is Abhisit's most important coalition partner. It's been a tempestous romance, at best.

For July 3, Bhumjaithai's posters have stressed policy over personality with ads such as this one, promising to lower the Value Added Tax by 2 percent. 

 

Name: Chartthaipattana (National Development Party)

Election designation: No. 21

Leader: Chumpol Silpa-archa

Current seats: 25

Another disbanded-then-reconstituted party once aligned with Thaksin and now part of the Democrat-led blok. Party leader Chumpol recently expressed umbrage after Abhisit said on Facebook he hadn't wanted to partner with Chartthaipattana. "Me neither," Chumpol said. Both men made veiled reference to external forces bending their wills together. Neither elaborated.

 

Name: Rak Santi  (Love Peace Party)

Election designation: No. 12

Leader:Purachai Piumsombum

Current seats: 0

Social conservative Purachai Piamsomboom made a name for himself as Thaksin's interior minister for his moral crusade against dancing, drinking and most things popular after dark. Bars closing at 2 a.m.? He's the guy.

Purachai, who has cultivated an image as "straight" and "honest," recently handed out rulers at a recent press event. He's offering himself as a middle-road compromise candidate for the undecideds.

Name: Pracha Santi  (People for Peace Party)

Election designation: No. 33

Leader: Seri Suwannaphanont

Current seats: 0(?)

This is what I'm talking about. Old school. Unenthusiastic-looking dudes in robes and uniforms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Name: Matubhum Party 

Election designation: No. ?

Leader: Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratklin

Current seats: 3(?)

Led by Sonthi Boonyaratklin, a Muslim army general and leader of the 2006 military coup, Matubhum's support base is in the south of Thailand.

 

Wordsmithing

 

• Just when we thought it had been spent, "blood and treasure" resurged in Obama's un-surge speech. Sounds like the name of a World of Warcraft guild.

• The banking derivatives economic subprime lending collateralized debt vampire squid crisis has left "tranche" deeply entrenched in the lexicon. It's become generally accepted  news-speak as an extensible metaphor and has trickled into casual parlance.

• Pray to your god/principle deity/alien progenitor/own-bad-self/talking demon head that no political necromancer is inspired to take "We've seen this movie before" out for another stumble in this pending American election cycle. It was a lemon the moment it drove off the lot. Props to its original smith. The earliest reference I can find is from the minutes of a 1995 session of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.  Bill Boyd of the pre-scandal Progressive Conservative Party used it to bookend an extended metaphor:

Mr. Speaker, my questions this morning are for the Madam Minister of Finance. Madam Minister, the reviews on your balanced budget legislation are in and it's two thumbs down.

[...]

We've seen this movie before, Madam Minister. Why not put some assurances in the Bill so that we don't see this same sad ending as we've seen in other legislation that you've done? Would you do that today, Madam Minister?

Indeed.

Update:  Actually the Saskatchewan reference is predated by one year in a New York Times news brief of a Democratic Party ad campaign during the 1994 midterms attacking the GOP's "Contract with America." DNC Chairman David Wilhelm aptly used it to invoke America's first Actor-American president, prior to Reagan's posthumous beatification:

"When it comes to the Republican contract, we've seen this movie before. While the main actor is gone, the central plot remains."

Who knew we'd see another remake in 2011?

 

With election and return to democracy near, sparks fly from Thai hustings

By KENNETH TODD RUIZ

BANGKOK -- Polychromatic political agitators,  military-girded coups d'état, factional violence and courts of law have all had a hand in reversing Thailand's democratic fortunes during the past five years.

Next month, Thailand's electorate hopes to voice the final word in restoring representative democracy by choosing new leadership in the first general elections held since 2007. Until that time, about 150 candidates have sought police protection for the remainder of the campaign while opponents trade accusations of impropriety.

Although a panoply of parties will appear on their ballots, voters on July 3 face two choices: either to maintain the status quo of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva or once again return power to the political dynasty of Thaksin Shinawatra, who was forcibly deposed in 2006. Until that time, about 150 candidates have sought police protection for the remainder of the campaign and opponents trade accusations of impropriety.

Either way, Election 2011 is a buyer's market. There doesn't seem to be many promises off the table for candidates -- from higher wages and lower taxes to the wholesale elimination of poverty and drug abuse. 

Abhisit has said his government will put more money in workers' pockets by increasing the minimum wage 25 percent. Thaksin promised a government-supplied tablet computer for every student.

Dramatics typical to any election are beginning to play out as the campaign enters its final weeks. Those opposing Thaksin have sought to disqualify Yingluck Shinawatra from her top spot on the Pheu Thai party list. Pheu Thai is all but guaranteed to win the most seats in the election, after which it will seek to coalesce a majority and install Yingluck -- Thaksin's younger sister -- as prime minister.

The Democrat Party hopes to keep Abhisit in that job by holding enough seats with its lesser coalition partners to block another ascendant Shinawatra. The urbane Abhisit has proven his political talents by outliving all expectations when he became caretaker prime minister by fiat in December 2008. He's also had to dodge ice blocks and insults outside of his urban comfort zone while seeking inroads into the rural, Thaksin heartland.

Although Yingluck has asserted her autonomy, few doubt she will serve as a proxy for her big brother, who built his brand as the micromanaging "CEO" of ThaiGov.

As Thailand looks to move forward, its fate and narrative are still dominated by one man, now living in exile in Dubai.

Indeed the younger Shinawatra's campaign seems to borrow heavily from Thaksin Shinawatra's highly successful bid in 2001. Then and now, Team Shinawatra promised to wield a business acumen and decisive leadership to address national ills.

The possibility that Yingluck might rule at her brother's behest would be just fine with many of the supporters  who helped Thaksin become the first prime minister to survive an entire term. He won a second term in 2004 with wide support. The Royal Thai Army removed him from power two years later.

Ninety-two people were killed during unrest in 2010 after Thaksin-aligned "Redshirts"  sought to affect his return from Dubai through nonviolent means. 

They also demanded Abhisit step down because he lacked the imprimatur of voters. The winsome Oxford graduate led his party in opposition until the removal of a second Thaksin-approved successor by a court under spurious pretenses.

Yingluck has promised amnesty for those who've run afoul of the past five years' political turmoil. Her opponents fear this to be a mechanism whereby Thaksin could be absolved of his in absentia conviction on corruption charges and return to Thailand.

Pheu Thai has reportedly declined to field Yingluck in a debate with Abhisit prior to the election. Either party will need to command a majority in the 500-seat parliament to forge a ruling government.

Despite the results of next month's election, the first test of Thailand's return to democracy will come after the ballots are certified. Whether Thaksin, Abhisit, red, yellow or other prevails, it remains to be seen whether there will be a noble concession of the vanquished -- and the powers each represents -- and respect for the rule of law.

Until then, voters have only promises and pasts through which to sift.

 

Kenneth Todd Ruiz is a Bangkok-based journalist.