Reporter in Exile

Thailand one year on

Antigovernment Redshirt demonstrators are marking the first anniversary of a violent crackdown by massing at the same location from which they were forcibly expelled May 19, 2010. Their vigil in front of the Central World Plaza in the Thai capital's upscale shopping district comes despite a rumored deal that has kept them off the streets in large numbers. Today the political parties drew their numbers for ballot position in the much-anticipated general election to take place July 3. 

After a year of relative quiet, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled Redshirt figurehead, has been actively campaigning for his Puea Thai party.  His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, is heading the party in his absence. Authorities have jailed several Redshirt leaders in the run-up to election day.

Although Puea Thai is expected to increase its majority, it will likely remain in opposition. It will be difficult to garner the number of seats needed to overcome the Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's coalition bloc. The newly formed New Politics Party of the status-quo leaning Yellowshirt movement has not fielded any candidates out of protest.

The election is being cast as a test for Thailand's stricken democracy. Political analysts augur the vote could either be a fresh start or catalyst for a new round of divisive angst.

Meanwhile the Grand Guignol of distractions along the Thai-Cambodian border, in which soldiers and civilians from both countries have been killed in the fight over an ancient Khmer temple, has been quiet under a new cease-fire agreement.

Thailand has admitted using banned cluster munitions in its attempt to lay claim to the temple. The International Court of Justice ruled 60 years ago the border temple lay within Cambodia.

UBL's terminal surprises

Nearly a decade ago I was sleeping in an icy goat shed outside Jalalabad, Afghanistan, in the shadow of the "White Mountain" of Tora Bora. This was supposed to be the "end game" maneuver to kill Osama bin Laden, who was believed (and later confirmed) to be hiding in one of the cave complexes from which he once made a name for himself repelling a Soviet siege.

He was within the reach -- but not the will -- of American forces at that time nine years ago.

We even heard a voice believed to be his on the radio.

But the U.S. army didn't send in the infantry, and its unreliable mujahideen proxy force let him slip out the back door.

Today's special ops raid to kill the man designated "UBL" by the U.S. government contains a number of surprises. First of which, the fact that it wasn't an expensive UAV supertoy, but a helicopter loaded with armed men who assassinated bin Laden.

Secondly, that his body, according the POTUS, is in the 'custody' of American forces. Likely to stave off the inevitable 'Osama Lives!' memes that will begin percolating ... now.

But most interestingly -- or not -- is where he was reportedly holed up. For the past decade, we've been told the 9-11 architect and spiritual leader of pan-Islamist militancy was most likely hiding on the Pakistan side of the border in the lawless Northwest Frontier Province -- a place outside the control of Pakistan's government and, from my experience, is little changed from the 12th Century.

Reports indicate he was in a "mansion" north of Islamabad (Pakistan's political capital) and Rawalpindi (the true, military capital). Not inside the NWFP. Despite Obama's unconvincing assurances Pakistan "helped" in the effort, it certainly lends the appearance of state patronage.

 

View Larger Map

 

Fingers will point at duplicitous, rogue elements within Pakistan's intelligence service, but would that distinction be applied to CIA activities?

And of course, Fox News has already hedlined "Obama Bin Laden" dead, and not for the first time.

For a good read on Tora Bora, check out what Peter Bergen wrote for The New Republic in 2009.