Imagine there was a special court in the United States that could entirely disband the Democratic or Republican parties for campaign spending violations or conflicts of interest. Not only dissolve entire parties, but also ban their members from holding office for five years.
In Thailand, such a court exists. It has brought down two governments and twice dissolved popular political parties associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, himself deposed in a coup, convicted of corruption and on the run.
Today, the latest chapter in Thai political turmoil will be written by Constitutional Court when it issues its verdict on whether the ruling Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva gets the axe.
The allegation? That the Democrats exceeded limits to public spending on campaign advertising by several million dollars baht.
If the court rules against the party -- the oldest in the kingdom and standard-bearers of the staus quo -- its constituencies will likely create a new party to rally around. However its current leadership will be unable to participate.
Democrat officials have expressed firm belief the verdict will be in their favor. Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban expressed such confidence by saying they have prepared no contingency plan for an order to dissolve.
In recent years, the Thai judiciary increasingly has been criticized as being susceptible to political influence, and at worst, a proxy force for the machinations of those in power.
A decision by the court to not disband the party will be ill-received by opposition elements, who have organized large rallies during the past 18 months.
The court heard the case after Thailand's election commission recommended the party be dissolved just days before the opposition "red shirts" began their campaign this past spring, which ended nearly 100 people, mostly civilians, were killed in the streets of the Thai capital.
In reality, top Democrats aren't being quite so cavalier, according to WSJ's James Hookway:
While Democrat leaders publicly say they have no contingency plan to cope with an adverse court verdict and expect to be exonerated, Thai observers suggest Democrat authorities have already set up a smaller party to absorb Democrat politicians and stay on as head of the ruling coalition in the event that the Democrat Party is dissolved.
Still, Thailand's powerful armed forces, which helped put the ruling coalition government together, would be taking a substantial risk by allowing such a political realignment take place, analysts say. Mr. Thaksin's supporters in the opposition might gather fresh momentum amid the confusion and refocus their challenge to the government, six months after a series of violent clashes between antigovernment protesters and troops on the streets of Bangkok earlier this year.
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